The Real Estate Agent Blog

By Craig Miller
Published on: July 16, 2008

Is the real estate market experiencing a shift? The charts provided by SmartNumbers gives a hint of a shift in the market. Below, an explanation of the SmartNumbers charts for the Atlanta real estate market. The information is on the data collected about single family homes from 2000 until May 2008.

LISTINGS CLOSED on all single family properties has NOT shown an increase as it usually does during the summer months. It actually decreased from March – May, putting the number of closed listings in May 2008 at just over 4,500 (equal to the closed listings in May 2000).

AVERAGE SALE PRICE has increased $20k in three months, making May 2008’s average $240k. That average sale price is between the May 2004 and May 2005 averages.

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET for May is still more than 2007’s average but has steadily declined since the beginning of 2008, from over 100 days in January to about 92 average days on the market. Getting the average days on market below that 90 day period is a very good thing, since a listing agreement usually is a minimum of three months.

To sum things up. The amount of listings closed for this time of year is not the usual up-swing for , but is declining (maybe due to the fact that a greater percentage of the inventory is expiring, because the difficulty real estate agents are experiencing pricing a home in this market). The average sales price has increased about the same as it usually does this time of year. The average days on market is declining, this means that buyer’s looking for a deal have less time to act on the deal they find. It’s still a buyer’s market out there, but with small changes in the market, means that the BIG DEALS you see now, will not last forever (the first 4 properties I pulled up and wanted to show an investor went under contract before we could visit them, only two days after seeing them online).

By: Craig Miller
Published on: February 28, 2008

Hey,

The media is blowing everything out of proportion by throwing negative broadcasts at the public. Right now, the real estate market is seemingly down, but there is many areas around the country that have yet to see a decline in average house prices. I’m thinking positive, I’m also living the real estate industry as a Realtor, so read on, take a look at real estate that you’ve never seen before!

I attended Keller Williams Realty’s Family Reunion 2008 (an annual gathering of the KW family). Gary Keller, Co-founder and Chairman of the Board at KW, gave great informative speeches about the market. Not only did Gary speak about the market being on a down-swing, but also presented detailed graphs and explained that there has been worse markets in the past.

What I understood, from listening to Gary’s thoughts about the market, is that housing affordability (percent of people who can buy a house to fit their needs) dropped sharply. While housing affordability has been dropping for a couple years (now at ~15%) the average house price has drastically increased the last 5 years. The national average house price is $220k, when it should be around $186k. In 2003 the national average surpassed $186k (which is where it should be today).

So, what happened to increase housing costs 18% more than where it should be? I have some ideas… Construction companies, Reselling of homes with greedy owners (with the help of real estate agents), and Mortgage companies.

First, how has new home construction been doing for the past few years? Well, from studying real estate, I know that each passing quarter in 2007 meant there would be less new home sales, less building permits, and more incentives to home buyers. It seems construction companies could have either slowed home building sooner (to compensate for fewer new home sales), or could have discarded some upgrades in the houses they did build (to avoid offering “buyer bonuses” at such high values).

Now, lets look at how re-sales account for a portion of that 18% housing price increase. When the ‘average person’ goes to sell their home, they naturally want to get as much money as they can. Their home may actually be “the best house in the subdivision,” but, I can guarantee you, most of the time it won’t be. I hear experienced agents say “you used to just have to put a sign in the yard,” and that scares me a little, because how much more did they sell those houses for, which would in turn increase the local house values when using a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA’s are a quick, accurate tool used by Realtors to establish a sales price of a home). The percent of increase (or decrease) in the average house price varies between states, counties, cities, and school districts. Living, east of Atlanta, GA in Gwinnett County, as a Realtor I’ve noticed that a home purchased 3 years ago or more, will be listed (by an agent) at an increase of about 3-4% per year. The person with the ‘average house,’ who wanted more than what the house was worth, probably sold it for more than it was worth with the help of a Realtor, and therefore, enabled more homes locally to sell for more.

The mortgage companies also aided the seller’s in selling their homes, and I believe, it’ll be the mortgage companies who help the most with restoring the real estate market. Buyers looking for houses must have been like the wild roaming a jungle (Now it’s hard to believe that buyers exist). The mortgages the buyers received, were, first of all, too much of a loan, then started becoming 100% financing, and “oh, you can afford that house, have you heard of an Adjustable Rate Mortgage” (an ARM has a hand, and if you don’t get a promotion…). You get the point. Now, this will help the market because without all that creative financing, we wouldn’t have as many foreclosures. What needs to happen is that every house that gets foreclosed needs to sell, the quicker the better, no matter how cheap. The foreclosures will make houses that were too expensive to begin with, affordable to the person who needs it. And for whoever is facing foreclosure, need to realize that they cannot afford their home, they CAN sell it, maybe for a loss (talk to your mortgage company, they don’t want to have to sell it!!!), and get something smaller. The overall average house price must drop somehow, foreclosures will definitely drop the average a little, but at a big price for the ones who can’t avoid it. Of course, the community will be hurt when a foreclosure or three pop-up in a CMA, the next 6 months worth of home sales could be affected. All of this will return our average house prices to where they should be in the near future, the sooner the better!